Projecting the Future of Global Energy Systems

The future of global energy systems is marked by significant uncertainty and unpredictability. Many organizations have invested considerable effort into creating long-term projections to outline various possible scenarios [1-8]. These projections take into account a range of assumptions about policy choices, technological advancements, energy prices, and geopolitical developments.

In general, projection scenarios can be classified into:

Reference Scenario: This assumes that new policy choices are limited or nonexistent, projecting a future where the current political context continues unchanged.
Evolving Policy Scenario: In this scenario, policies and technologies develop and adapt in line with recent trends and advancements.
Ambitious Climate Scenario: Unlike the other scenarios, this is based not on current or anticipated political decisions, but rather on specific climate goals which want to be achieved.

Given the complexity of identifying scenarios and the variability of outcomes depending on the assumptions made, it is critical to contextualize any reliance on these projections. The accuracy and relevance of these scenarios are intrinsically linked to the methodologies and assumptions used in their creation. Therefore, understanding the underlying assumptions and limitations of each projection is essential to making informed decisions based on these predictions. [10] provides an overall analysis of the current state and future prospects based on a multitude of studies, comparing them and identifying their cogeuities as well as their diversities.

Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels

At the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai, December 2023, world leaders agreed on the urgent need to transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, aiming to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity [10]. Achieving this ambitious goal necessitates substantial growth in renewable energy conversion technologies, particularly in wind and solar power. The adoption of advanced solutions, including floating wind turbines and innovative installation techniques, is enhancing the accessibility and sustainability of renewable wind energy through offshore projects [11] . However, the energy transition has not fully taken off yet; renewable energy sources have been added to the existing energy mix without significantly reducing the use of fossil fuels [12].
Scenarios that envision limiting global warming to 1.5°C [1,3,5,7] and those targeting 2°C [1] by 2100 both assume the continued use of fossil fuels at least until 2050. This may seem to contradict the goal of Net Zero Emissions, but two key elements must be considered. First, the decision to utilize carbon capture technologies is widely supported [8,13]. The implementation of these technologies, known as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS), is deemed essential for achieving net-zero emissions in all ambitious climate scenarios [1,3,5,7]. Second, as energy efficiency improves, a reduction in overall energy demand is anticipated. Specifically, according to scenarios aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris Agreement [3], energy demand is projected to be 30% lower than the levels observed in 2021.

Carbon Removal Technologies

In 2022, CCUS infrastructure worldwide captured approximately 42 million tons of CO2. While this figure represents a mere 0.1% of annual global CO2 emissions, it also marks a nearly threefold increase in CCUS capacity since 2010. Projections in both evolving policy and ambitious climate scenarios suggest that CCUS deployment will expand significantly by 2050. In the evolving scenario a tripling of this expansion is quantified, while in ambitious scenarios a potential growth of around 15 times its current size is indicated.

This level of growth is technically achievable, as noted in [12]. However, the future costs of implementing these technologies, especially in relatively new sectors like electricity production, remain uncertain. Furthermore, while CCUS technologies are effective at capturing CO2, they do not address water pollution or other air pollutants.
The continued development and expansion of CCUS are critical for meeting global climatetargets. As the technology advances and becomes more cost-effective, its role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions will likely become even more significant, despite its current limitations in addressing other environmental pollutants.

Energy Efficiency to meet the Net Zero Emissions

Energy efficiency is key to reducing global carbon emissions and achieving sustainable energy goals. Giant strides have been made in recent decades, with global energy intensity improving from an annual rate of 0.8% in the 2000s to 1.7% between 2010 and 2022, helping to avoid substantial CO2 emissions every year [14]. To meet the Net Zero Emissions scenario by 2050, a 4% annual rate of improvement in energy intensity is needed until 2030, with the aim of avoiding around 10 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions per year.

The European Union’s new Energy Efficiency Directive imposes an average annual energy savings rate of 1.49% from 2024 to 2030, tackling energy poverty and improving the energy performance of buildings and industry [15]. Technological advances, such as efficient appliances, better building insulation and advanced industrial processes, are key to reducing energy demand. Accelerated replacement of inefficient equipment with compliant models further supports this progress.

A Sustainable Energy Future

The journey towards a sustainable energy future is intricate and multifaceted. Projections of global energy systems emphasize the necessity for well-informed strategies centered on renewable energy. Transitioning away from fossil fuels, scaling up CCUS technologies, and enhancing energy efficiency are crucial components in reducing carbon emissions and meeting climate goals. The coordinated efforts of governments, industries, and consumers will be vital in advancing these initiatives, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient energy future. Through technological innovation, robust policy frameworks, and collective action, we can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable world.

References

[1] bp (2023). Energy Outlook. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

[2] Energy Information Administration (2023). International Energy Outlook 2023.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo

[3] Equinor (2024). Energy Perspectives 2024 https://www.equinor.com/sustainability/energy-perspectives

[4] ExxonMobil (2023). 2023 Outlook for Energy. https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/What-we-do/Energy-supply/Global-Outlook#Keyinsights

[5] IEA (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023

[6] Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (2023). World Oil Outlook

2023. https://woo.opec.org/

[7] Shell (2023). The Energy Security Scenarios. https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/scenarios/the-energy-security-scenarios.html#vanity-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2hlbGwuY29tL2VuZXJneS1hbmQtaW5ub3ZhdGlvbi90aGUtZW5lcmd5LWZ1dHVyZS9zY2VuYXJpb3MvdGhlLWVuZXJneS1zZWN1cml0eS1zY2VuYXJpb3MuaHRtbA

[8] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2023). Outcome of the First

Global Stocktake. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf?download

[9] Resources for the Future (2024). Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus? https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/global-energy-outlook-2024/

[10] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2023). Outcome of the First

Global Stocktake. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf?download

[11] MESPAC (2024). Exploring the offshore frontier: The Growing horizon of wind energy https://mespac.space/2024/06/13/exploring-the-offshore-frontier-the-growing-horizon-of-wind-energy/

[12] Resources for the Future (2020). Global Energy Outlook 2020:

Energy Transition or Energy Addition? https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/global-energy-outlook-2020/

[13] IEA (2024). Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage

[14] IEA (2023). Energy Efficiency https://www.iea.org/energy-system/energy-efficiency-and-demand/energy-efficiency

[15] European commission (2023). Energy efficiency targets https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-efficiency-targets-directive-and-rules/energy-efficiency-targets_en